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Crude Oil Fundamentals

There are more than a few things that can affect crude oil prices and here are some fundamentals worth noting if you are trading crude oil futures:

Supply and Demand

Domestic demand and global demand can have a unique effect on crude oil price. Over the last decade, emerging markets like India and China have increased demand for crude oil and that led many speculators to suggest that demand would outpace supply. On the domestic side, the regular reports from the EIA on refining activity and crude oil supply have direct impact on crude oil price and also crude oil futures price volatility. Released weekly, EIA reports and API reports are often key fundamental influences on crude oil futures markets.

OPEC Output

OPEC production levels and promises for production can also add volatility to crude oil prices. Even a scheduled OPEC meeting and speculation about increases or cuts to oil production can impact crude oil futures markets.

Weather

Storms in the Gulf region of the United States as well as the North Sea can halt production of crude oil both on drilling platforms as well as refineries which may be shut down anticipating the arrival of a bad storm. Events like Hurricane Katrina stand as strong examples of how weather may have a direct impact on crude oil price.

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Geo-Political Issues

Tensions in oil producing regions or near pipelines or refineries can also cause changes in crude oil prices as investors weigh the possibility of supply interruptions. Pipeline attacks or oil tanker hijackings are some past examples. Political tensions and war in the Middle East also influenced crude oil price in the past.

Refinery Repairs or Issues

When pipelines or refineries are shutdown for any reason, this can disrupt supply and cause crude oil prices to fluctuate.

These are situations you will want to be aware of when trading crude oil futures as they can impact crude oil price and increase volatility. It can be worth watching for these events since crude oil futures trading can be incredibly risky even without events such as wars or hurricanes to increase volatility.

Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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